Summary

The Pacific Northwest Index (PNI), developed by Ebbesmeyer and Strickland (1995), is a terrestrial climate index useful for studying climate effects on salmon productivity trends. It is a composite index that characterizes Pacific Northwest climate patterns in both coastal waters and freshwater habitats. In addition, it is a century-long record. A composite climate index is an effective measurement because many environmental parameters in the Northwest are statistically related to one another; consequently, they may be combined to furnish a broad-scale understanding of the state of the Pacific Northwest environment. The PNI uses three parameters: 1) air temperature at Olga in the San Juan Islands, averaged annually from daily data; 2) total precipitation at Cedar Lake in the Cascade Mountains; and 3) snowpack depth at Paradise on Mount Rainier on March 15 of each year. For each parameter, annual values were normalized by subtracting the annual value from the average of all years and dividing by the standard deviation. The sign of the normalized temperature is reversed because low temperature corresponds with high precipitation and snow. Finally, the three variables are averaged yearly giving a relative indicator of the variations in climate. Years with positive values of the PNI are warmer and drier than average and those with negative values are cooler and wetter than average.

Reference

Ebbesmeyer, C.C. and R.M. Strickland. 1995. Oyster Condition and Climate: Evidence from Willapa Bay. Publication WSG-MR 95-02, Washington Sea Grant Program, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. 11p.

Method

Annual PNI for Year Y:

PNI_y = ( TempDev_y + PrecipDev_y + SnowDev_y ) / 3

where:

TempDev_y = - ( Mean_Temp - Temp_y ) / StDev_Temp

PrecipDev_y = ( Mean_Precip - Precip_y ) / StDev_Precip

SnowDev_y = ( Mean_Snow - Snow_y ) / StDev_Snow

Sign of TempDev is reversed because low temperature corresponds with high precipitation and snow.

Development of aPNI (alternate PNI)

In April 2016, the Olga 2 SE air temperature location ceased with no replacement. This jeopardized the continuation of the PNI past 2015. We use dynamic factor analysis (DFA) modeled temperatures as a surrogate for Olga 2 SE mean annual temperatures in an alternative PNI calculation (aPNI) through the available time series and publish the results in parallel with the original PNI. We will continue to explore opportunities in modeling an annual temperature value for the Pacific Northwest that can improve upon this DFA analysis.

Van Holmes, C. & Gosselin J. (2020). Development of a Mean Annual Temperature Value for the Continued Calculation of the Pacific Northwest Climate Index . Available from: www.cbr.washington.edu/sites/default/files/papers/Olga_Surrogate_DFA_FINAL.pdf

Data