Workgroups & Teams

Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE) for Sacramento River Winter-run Chinook Salmon -- in Development

Data extracted by SacPAS from "Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE) for Sacramento River Winter-run Chinook Salmon by Brood Year" letters from National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce to the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior (hereafter termed "JPE letter"), available from California Central Valley Water Operations: Biological Opinion Actions, NOAA Fisheries. Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE) Methods through the years.

Natural Origin: Total natural production entering the Delta

Natural Origin: Total natural production entering the Delta from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Total natural production entering the Delta from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
1992246,157Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural1993-02-09NANANANA
199366,536Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural1993-10-01NANANANA
199431,491Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural1995-02-21NANANANA
1995338,107Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural1995-10-20NANANANA
1996165,069Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural1997-02-10NANANANA
1997138,316Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural1998-04-27NANANANA
1998454,792Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural1999-02-26NANANANA
1999289,724Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2000-01-01NANANANA
2000370,221Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2001-01-29NANANANA
20011,864,802Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2002-02-22NANANANA
20022,136,747Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2003-02-19NANANANA
20031,896,649Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2004-01-21NANANANA
2004881,719Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2005-02-08NANANANA
20053,831,286Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2006-02-10NANANANA
20063,739,069Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2007-02-15NANANANA
2007NATotal natural production entering the DeltaNaturalNANANANANA
2008617,783Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2009-01-12NANANANA
20091,179,633Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2010-02-24NANANANA
2010332,012Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2011-01-12NANANANA
2011162,051Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2012-01-26NANANANA
2012532,809Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2013-01-31NANANANA
20131,196,387Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2014-02-21NANANANA
2014124,521Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2015-01-16NANANANA
2015101,716Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2016-01-28NANANANA
2016166,189Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2017-02-03NANANANA
2017201,409Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2018-01-08NANANANA
2018433,176Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2019-02-01NANANANA
2019854,941Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2020-01-23NAMethod 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSC301,0021,408,880
2020330,130Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2021-01-15NAMethod 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSC145,088515,172
2021125,038Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2022-01-14NAMethod 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSC59,064191,013
202249,924Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2023-01-13NAMethod 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSC32,29867,550
2023234,896Total natural production entering the DeltaNatural2024-01-12NAMethod 2 (O'Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSC159,951309,841

Natural Origin: Total Sacramento River escapement

Natural Origin: Total Sacramento River escapement from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Total Sacramento River escapement from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
19921,092Total Sacramento River escapementNatural1993-02-09NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1993271Total Sacramento River escapementNatural1993-10-01NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1994129Total Sacramento River escapementNatural1995-02-21NACDFW, USFWSNANA
19951,251Total Sacramento River escapementNatural1995-10-20NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1996611Total Sacramento River escapementNatural1997-02-10NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1997480Total Sacramento River escapementNatural1998-04-27NACDFW, USFWSNANA
19981,682Total Sacramento River escapementNatural1999-02-26NACDFW, USFWSNANA
19991,072Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2000-01-01NACDFW, USFWSNANA
20001,059Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2001-01-29NACDFW, USFWSNANA
20017,572Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2002-02-22"1/ Based on DFG carcass survey (Jolly-Seber model), includes hatchery and grilse"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20027,337Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2003-02-19"1/ 2002 CDFG Carcass Survey (Jolly-Seber) Estimate from 1/24/03, includes hatchery returns and grilse."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2003NATotal Sacramento River escapementNaturalNANANANANA
20048,635Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2005-02-08NACDFW, USFWSNANA
200515,730Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2006-02-10"1/ 2005 carcass survey estimate (Jolly-Seber) from DFG letter, 1/13/06, includes both wild and hatchery origin."CDFW, USFWSNANA
200617,205Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2007-02-15"1/ 2006 carcass survey (DFG letter dated 12/7/06), Jolly-Seber est. includes both wild and hatchery origin."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2007NATotal Sacramento River escapementNaturalNANANANANA
20082,850Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2009-01-12"1/ Based on DFG official estimate, letter to NMFS received 11/25/08, includes hatchery broodstock."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20094,537Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2010-02-24"1/ Based on DFG letter dated 1/14/10, includes hatchery broodstock."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20101,533Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2011-01-12"1/ Based on DFG letter to Rod McInnis 12/08/10, in-river spawners minus hatchery broodstock."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2011824Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2012-01-26"1/ total in-river escapement using Jolly-Seber model, includes fish taken for hatchery broodstock (738 +86 =824) from DFG letter 12/6/11."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20122,581Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2013-01-31"1/ Total in-river escapement (90% CI) using modified Cormack Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, includes 803 hatchery fish from CDFW letter 1/4/13, but does not include 93 removed for LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20135,958Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2014-02-21"1/ Total in-river escapement from Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model (90% CI), includes natural and hatchery origin, but not 117 collected at Keswick trap for LSNFH (CDFW letter 1/7/14)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20142,627Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2015-01-16"1/ Total in-river escapement from Cormack-Jolly Seber (CIS) model includes natural and hatchery origin"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20153,182Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2016-01-28"1/ Total in-river escapement from Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural and hatchery origin, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at Livingston Stone National Fish Hatchery."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20161,409Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2017-02-03"1/ Total in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural and hatchery origin, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2017795Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2018-01-08"1/ Total in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural and hatchery origin, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20182,458Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2019-02-01"1/ Total in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural and hatchery origin, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20197,852Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2020-01-23"1/ Total in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural and hatchery origin, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20206,195Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2021-01-15"1/ Total Sacramento River in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural and hatchery origin, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20219,956Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2022-01-14"1/ Total Sacramento River in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural- and hatchery-origin winter-run Chinook Salmon, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20225,443Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2023-01-13"1/ Total Sacramento River in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural- and hatchery-origin winter-run Chinook Salmon, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20231,920Total Sacramento River escapementNatural2024-01-12"1/ Total Sacramento River in-river escapement from CDFW Cormack-Jolly Seber (CJS) model includes natural- and hatchery-origin winter-run Chinook Salmon, but not hatchery fish retained for brood stock at LSNFH."CDFW, USFWSNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Adult female estimate (AFE)

Natural Origin: Adult female estimate (AFE) from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Adult female estimate (AFE) from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
1992546Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural1993-02-09NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1993135Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural1993-10-01NACDFW, USFWSNANA
199464Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural1995-02-21NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1995625Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural1995-10-20NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1996305Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural1997-02-10NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1997240Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural1998-04-27NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1998841Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural1999-02-26NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1999536Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2000-01-01NACDFW, USFWSNANA
2000529Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2001-01-29NACDFW, USFWSNANA
20014,876Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2002-02-22"2/ Based on observed grilse and sex ratio, DFG carcass survey 2001"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20025,745Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2003-02-19"2/ 2002 CDFG Carcass Survey observed proportion of adult females."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2003NAAdult female estimate (AFE)NaturalNANANANANA
2004NAAdult female estimate (AFE)NaturalNANANANANA
20059,005Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2006-02-10"2/ Number of females estimated from the carcass surveys (hatchery + natural origin)"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20068,811Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2007-02-15"2/ Number of females estimated from the carcass surveys (hatchery + natural origin)"CDFW, USFWSNANA
2007NAAdult female estimate (AFE)NaturalNANANANANA
20081,466Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2009-01-12"2/ Used sex ratio from Keswick trap( 53%) instead of carcass surveys(78%) to account for bias in males"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20092,717Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2010-02-24"2/ Sex ratio was based on data collected in 2009 carcass survey (USFWS pre-release report 1/25/10)"CDFW, USFWSNANA
2010822Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2011-01-12"2/ Sex ratio from carcass survey, number of females estimated from DFG letter"CDFW, USFWSNANA
2011424Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2012-01-26"2/ Sex ratio from 2011 Keswick trap instead of carcass surveys to account for bias in males. Number of females estimated is from DFG letter 12/6/11."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20121,498Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2013-01-31"2/ The number of females is derived from carcass surveys by applying the CJS model and then the number of males is derived using the sex ratio at the Keswick trapping station."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20133,613Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2014-02-21"2/ The number of females is derived from carcass survey and then the number of males is derived using sex ratio at Keswick trap."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20141,698Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2015-01-16"2/ The number of adult (age 3 or older) females is derived from carcass survey and then the number of males is derived using sex ratio at Keswick trap"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20152,063Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2016-01-28"2/ The number of adult (age 3 or older) females is derived from carcass survey and then the number of males is derived using sex ratio at Keswick trap"CDFW, USFWSNANA
2016658Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2017-02-03"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass survey and then the number of males is derived using sex ratio at Keswick trap"CDFW, USFWSNANA
2017373Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2018-01-08"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass survey and then the number of males is derived using sex ratio at Keswick trap"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20181,088Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2019-02-01"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass surveys, and the number of males is derived using sex ratio at Keswick trap."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20194,947Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2020-01-23"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass surveys, and the number of males is derived using sex ratio at Keswick trap."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20204,023Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2021-01-15"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass surveys on the Sacramento River. Naturally spawning winter-run in Battle Creek are not included."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20216,199Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2022-01-14"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass surveys on the Sacramento River. Naturally spawning winter-run Chinook Salmon in Battle Creek are not included."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20222,663Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2023-01-13"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass surveys on the Sacramento River. Naturally spawning winter-run Chinook Salmon in Battle Creek are not included."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20231,070Adult female estimate (AFE)Natural2024-01-12"2/ The number of adult females is derived from carcass surveys on the Sacramento River. Naturally spawning winter-run Chinook Salmon in Battle Creek are not included."CDFW, USFWSNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortality

Natural Origin: Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortality from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortality from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
1992519Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural1993-02-09NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1993129Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural1993-10-01NACDFW, USFWSNANA
199461Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural1995-02-21NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1995594Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural1995-10-20NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1996290Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural1997-02-10NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1997228Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural1998-04-27NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1998799Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural1999-02-26NACDFW, USFWSNANA
1999509Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2000-01-01NACDFW, USFWSNANA
2000503Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2001-01-29NACDFW, USFWSNANA
20014,828Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2002-02-22"3/ Estimated mortality up to 1% from fresh carcass observations, DFG carcass survey 2001"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20025,670Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2003-02-19"3/ 2002 CDFG Carcass Survey estimated spawning success from fresh carcass observations (0.987)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2003NAAdult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNaturalNANANANANA
20043,218Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2005-02-08NACDFW, USFWSNANA
20058,807Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2006-02-10"3/ Pre-spawn mortality (# adult females x 2.2% unspawned) Alice Low, DFG, per.comm. WRSPWT 2005"CDFW, USFWSNANA
20068,626Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2007-02-15"3/ Pre-spawn mortality (2.1% of all fresh females) from Alice Low, DFG, per.comm. 1/16/07"CDFW, USFWSNANA
2007NAAdult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNaturalNANANANANA
20081,443Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2009-01-12"3/ Pre-spawn mortality =1.55%, or 6 of 387 females unspawned (D. Killam email 8/28/09)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20092,702Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2010-02-24"3/ Pre-spawn mortality =0.54%, or 3 of 553 females unspawned (D. Killam email 1/28/10)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2010813Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2011-01-12"3/ Pre-spawn mortality =1.0%, or 8 of 822 females unspawned (from DFG carcass survey table)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2011424Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2012-01-26"3/ Pre-spawn mortality =0% in 2011, from DFG carcass survey table."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20121,491Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2013-01-31"3/ Pre-spawn mortality (7 of 602 females observed) in 2012, from CDFW final carcass estimate 12/3/12."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20133,577Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2014-02-21"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW final estimate 12/15/13)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20141,681Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2015-01-16"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20152,022Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2016-01-28"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2016653Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2017-02-03"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
2017367Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2018-01-08"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20181,080Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2019-02-01"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20194,883Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2020-01-23"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20203,904Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2021-01-15"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (CDFW)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20215,860Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2022-01-14"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (Doug Killam, CDFW, pers. comm.)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20222,607Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2023-01-13"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (Doug Killam, CDFW, pers. comm.)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
20231,061Adult female estimate (AFE) minus pre-spawn mortalityNatural2024-01-12"3/ Pre-spawn mortality was estimated from carcass surveys of females (Doug Killam, CDFW, pers. comm.)."CDFW, USFWSNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Average fecundity

Natural Origin: Average fecundity from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Average fecundity from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
19923,353Average fecundityNatural1993-02-09NALSNFHNANA
19933,500Average fecundityNatural1993-10-01NALSNFHNANA
19943,500Average fecundityNatural1995-02-21NALSNFHNANA
19953,859Average fecundityNatural1995-10-20NALSNFHNANA
19963,859Average fecundityNatural1997-02-10NALSNFHNANA
19973,859Average fecundityNatural1998-04-27NALSNFHNANA
19983,859Average fecundityNatural1999-02-26NALSNFHNANA
19993,859Average fecundityNatural2000-01-01NALSNFHNANA
20004,990Average fecundityNatural2001-01-29"3/ Average number of eggs per female derived from this year's spawning at Livingston Stone Hatchery (n=44)"LSNFHNANA
20014,700Average fecundityNatural2002-02-22"4/ Average fecundity rate from 2001 spawning at Livingston Stone Hatchery (n=50)"LSNFHNANA
20024,923Average fecundityNatural2003-02-19"4/ Number of eggs per adult female at LSNFH, broodyear 2002 records (n=47)."LSNFHNANA
2003NAAverage fecundityNaturalNANANANANA
2004NAAverage fecundityNaturalNANANANANA
20055,500Average fecundityNatural2006-02-10"4/ Eggs per adult female (n= 47), based on 2005 adult returns to Livingston Stone National Fish Hatchery."LSNFHNANA
20065,484Average fecundityNatural2007-02-15"4/ Eggs per adult female (n= 50), based on 2006 spawning at Livingston Stone National Fish Hatchery."LSNFHNANA
2007NAAverage fecundityNaturalNANANANANA
20085,424Average fecundityNatural2009-01-12"4/ Average eggs/female, 2008 returns to Livingston Stone National Fish Hatchery (n=48, STD 911)."LSNFHNANA
20095,519Average fecundityNatural2010-02-24"4/ Average eggs/female, 2009 hatchery returns (n=48) Table 2, USFWS pre-release report 1/25/10)."LSNFHNANA
20105,161Average fecundityNatural2011-01-12"4/ Average eggs/female, from 2010 returns to Livingston Stone National Fish Hatchery, John Rueth."LSNFHNANA
20114,832Average fecundityNatural2012-01-26"4/ Average eggs/female, based on 2011 return (n=45) to LSNFH from Kevin Niemela, FWS, 1/10/12."LSNFHNANA
20124,518Average fecundityNatural2013-01-31"4/ Average # eggs/female, from 2012 returns (n=47) to LSNFH, email from John Rueth, USFWS."LSNFHNANA
20134,596Average fecundityNatural2014-02-21"4/ Average # eggs/female, from 2013 returns to LSNFH (n=50), John Rueth, USFWS, email 12/13/13."LSNFHNANA
20145,308Average fecundityNatural2015-01-16"4/ Average # eggs/female from 175 females (including females less than 3 years old) collected from the 2014 returns to Livingston Stone"LSNFHNANA
20154,819Average fecundityNatural2016-01-28"4/ Average # eggs/female from 175 females (including females less than 3 years old) collected from the 2015 returns to Livingston Stone National Fish Hatchery."LSNFHNANA
20163,907Average fecundityNatural2017-02-03"4/ Average # eggs/female from weighted estimate based on two year and three old fish spawned at Livingston Stone Hatchery and in the carcass survey(Attachment A)."LSNFHNANA
20174,109Average fecundityNatural2018-01-08"4/ Preliminary (subject to change) average # of eggs/female from weighted estimate based on two year and three year old fish spawned at Livingston Stone Hatchery and from the carcass survey."LSNFHNANA
20185,141Average fecundityNatural2019-02-01"4/ Preliminary (subject to change) average number of eggs/female from 49 fish spawned at LSNFH"LSNFHNANA
20195,424Average fecundityNatural2020-01-23"4/ Preliminary (subject to change) average number of eggs per female from 56 female fish spawned at LSNFH (unpublished data)."LSNFHNANA
20204,991Average fecundityNatural2021-01-15"4/ Preliminary (subject to change) average number of eggs per female from 75 female fish spawned at LSNFH (Taylor Lipscomb, USFWS pers. comm.)."LSNFHNANA
20215,312Average fecundityNatural2022-01-14"4/ Preliminary (subject to change) average number of eggs per female from 118 female fish spawned at LSNFH (Kaitlin Gooding, USFWS pers. comm.)."LSNFHNANA
20225,505Average fecundityNatural2023-01-13"4/ Preliminary (subject to change) average number of eggs per female from fish spawned (n=169) at LSNFH (Kaitlin Dunham, USFWS pers. comm.)."LSNFHNANA
20235,510Average fecundityNatural2024-01-12"4/ Preliminary (subject to change) average number of eggs per female from fish spawned (n=179) at LSNFH (Kaitlin Dunham, USFWS pers. comm.)."LSNFHNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Total eggs

Natural Origin: Total eggs from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Total eggs from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
19921,668,859Total eggsNatural1993-02-09NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
1993451,092Total eggsNatural1993-10-01NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
1994213,500Total eggsNatural1995-02-21NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19952,292,246Total eggsNatural1995-10-20NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19961,119,110Total eggsNatural1997-02-10NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
1997879,852Total eggsNatural1998-04-27NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19983,083,341Total eggsNatural1999-02-26NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19991,964,231Total eggsNatural2000-01-01NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20002,509,970Total eggsNatural2001-01-29NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
200122,576,291Total eggsNatural2002-02-22NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
200227,858,505Total eggsNatural2003-02-19NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
2003NATotal eggsNaturalNANANANANA
2004NATotal eggsNaturalNANANANANA
200548,437,895Total eggsNatural2006-02-10NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
200647,272,022Total eggsNatural2007-02-15NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
2007NATotal eggsNaturalNANANANANA
20087,810,463Total eggsNatural2009-01-12NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
200914,913,776Total eggsNatural2010-02-24NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20104,197,541Total eggsNatural2011-01-12NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20112,048,968Total eggsNatural2012-01-26NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20126,736,155Total eggsNatural2013-01-31NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
201316,439,295Total eggsNatural2014-02-21NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20148,922,854Total eggsNatural2015-01-16NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20159,742,765Total eggsNatural2016-01-28NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20162,551,585Total eggsNatural2017-02-03NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20171,507,924Total eggsNatural2018-01-08NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20185,552,280Total eggsNatural2019-02-01NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
201926,485,392Total eggsNatural2020-01-23NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
202019,484,864Total eggsNatural2021-01-15NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
202131,128,320Total eggsNatural2022-01-14NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
202214,351,535Total eggsNatural2023-01-13NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20235,846,110Total eggsNatural2024-01-12NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA

Natural Origin: Estimated egg-to-fry survival rate

Natural Origin: Estimated egg-to-fry survival rate from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Estimated egg-to-fry survival rate from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
19920.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural1993-02-09NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19930.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural1993-10-01NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19940.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural1995-02-21NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19950.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural1995-10-20NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19960.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural1997-02-10NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19970.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural1998-04-27NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19980.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural1999-02-26NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
19990.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2000-01-01NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20000.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2001-01-29NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
2001NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2002NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2003NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2004NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2005NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2006NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2007NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2008NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2009NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
2010NAEstimated egg-to-fry survival rateNaturalNANANANANA
20110.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2012-01-26"6/ This is measured at Red Bluff based on female spawners, carcass survey females, JPI/female spawner, and fecundity data (J. Smith, FWS, 12/7/11 WRPWT notes)"CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20120.25Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2013-01-31"6/ Survival measured at Red Bluff based on JPI/female spawners in carcass survey, and fecundity data (J. Smith, USFWS, 12/7/11 WRPWT notes)"CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20130.27Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2014-02-21NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20140.056Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2015-01-16NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20150.042Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2016-01-28NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20160.24Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2017-02-03NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20170.44Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2018-01-08NACDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20180.263Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2019-02-01"5/ Back calculated estimated survival between eggs laid in-river and fry production estimates at RBDD based on numbers of fry equivalents (JPI) using traditional (59%) fry-to-smolt survival estimates"CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20190.1798Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2020-01-23"5/ Back calculated estimated survival between eggs laid in-river and fry production estimates at RBDD based on numbers of fry equivalents (JPI) using the 0.4651 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate based on method described in O’Farrell et al. (2018)."CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20200.1146Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2021-01-15"5/ Back-calculated estimated survival between eggs laid in-river and fry production estimates at RBDD based on numbers of fry equivalents (JPI) using the 0.4475 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate method described in O’Farrell et al. (2018)."CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20210.0256Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2022-01-14"5/ Back calculated survival between estimated eggs laid in-river and fry production estimates at RBDD based on numbers of fry equivalents (JPI) using the 0.4429 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate based on method described in O’Farrell et al. (2018)."CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20220.0217Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2023-01-13"5/ Back calculated estimated survival between eggs laid in-river and fry production estimates at RBDD based on numbers of fry equivalents (JPI) using the 0.4946 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate based on method described in O’Farrell et al. (2018)."CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
20230.2494Estimated egg-to-fry survival rateNatural2024-01-12"5/ Back calculated estimated survival between eggs laid in-river and fry production estimates at RBDD based on numbers of fry equivalents (JPI) using the 0.5066 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate based on method described in O’Farrell et al. (2018)."CDFW, LSNFH, USFWSNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Fry-to-smolt survival

Natural Origin: Fry-to-smolt survival from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Fry-to-smolt survival from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
19920.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural1993-02-09NANANANA
19930.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural1993-10-01NANANANA
19940.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural1995-02-21NANANANA
19950.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural1995-10-20NANANANA
19960.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural1997-02-10NANANANA
19970.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural1998-04-27NANANANA
19980.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural1999-02-26NANANANA
19990.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2000-01-01NANANANA
20000.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2001-01-29NANANANA
2001NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2002NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2003NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2004NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2005NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2006NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2007NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2008NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2009NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
2010NAFry-to-smolt survivalNaturalNANANANANA
20110.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2012-01-26"7/ This number (0.59) previously had been multiplied into the estimated survival- Egg to Smolt"NANANA
20120.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2013-01-31"7/ This survival rate (0.59) previously had been multiplied into the Egg to Smolt survival"NANANA
20130.27Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2014-02-21"7/ Weighted average (50/50) of winter-run (2013) and late-fall run (2007-2010) acoustic tag data."NANANA
20140.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2015-01-16"9/ Estimate of fry to smolt survival based on fall run at Tehama Colusa Fish Facility (Hallock undated)"NANANA
20150.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2016-01-28"6/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival based on fall-run at Tehama Colusa Spawning Channel (Hallock updated)"NANANA
20160.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2017-02-03"6/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival based on fall-run at Tehama Colusa Spawning Channel (Hallock updated)"NANANA
20170.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2018-01-08"6/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival based on fall-run at Tehama Colusa Spawning Channel (Hallock updated)"NANANA
20180.59Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2019-02-01"7/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival based on fall-run at Tehama Colusa Spawning Channel (Hallock updated)"NANANA
20190.4651Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2020-01-23"7/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival rate based on O’Farrell et al. (2018)."NANANA
20200.4475Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2021-01-15"7/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival rate based on O’Farrell et al. (2018) applied to catch at RBDD."Method 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
20210.4429Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2022-01-14"7/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival rate based on O’Farrell et al. (2018), updated using data from BY 1998-2016."Method 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
20220.4946Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2023-01-13"7/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival rate based on O’Farrell et al. (2018), updated using data from BY 1998-2017."Method 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
20230.5066Fry-to-smolt survivalNatural2024-01-12"7/ Estimate of fry-to-smolt survival rate based on O'Farrell et al. (2018), updated using data from BY 1998-2017."Method 2 (O'Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Estimated smolt survival term

Natural Origin: Estimated smolt survival term from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Estimated smolt survival term from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
1992NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
1993NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
1994NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
1995NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
1996NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
1997NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
1998NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
1999NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
2000NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
20010.56Estimated smolt survival termNatural2002-02-22"7/ Based on ocean recoveries of paired CWT releases from Battle Cr, 1994-1999 (FWS 2002, unpublished)"NANANA
20020.52Estimated smolt survival termNatural2003-02-19"7/ Average of ocean recoveries of paired Late-Fall Chinook from Coleman National Fish Hatchery released at Battle Cr. and Delta locations from 1994-99 (USFWS 2003, unpubl.)"NANANA
2003NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
2004NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
20050.53625Estimated smolt survival termNatural2006-02-10"7/ Average of ocean recoveries of paired Late-Fall Chinook from Coleman National Fish Hatchery released at Battle Cr. and Delta locations from 1994-2001 (USFWS, unpubl. data, Chippstable 2005)"NANANA
20060.53625Estimated smolt survival termNatural2007-02-15"7/ Average of ocean recoveries of paired Late-Fall Chinook fmm Coleman Hatchery released at Battle Cr. and Delta locations from 1994-2001 (USFWS, unpubl. data, Chippstable 2005)"NANANA
2007NAEstimated smolt survival termNaturalNANANANANA
20080.53625Estimated smolt survival termNatural2009-01-12"7/ Average of ocean recoveries paired Late-Fall from Coleman Hatchery released at Battle Creek and in Delta locations from 1994-2001 (USFWS, unpubl. data, Chippstable 2005)"NANANA
20090.53625Estimated smolt survival termNatural2010-02-24"7/ Average of ocean recoveries paired Late-Fall from Coleman Hatchery released at Battle Creek and in Delta locations from 1994-2001 (USFWS, unpubl. data, Chippstable 2005)"NANANA
20100.53625Estimated smolt survival termNatural2011-01-12"7/ Average of ocean recoveries paired Late-Fall from Coleman NFH released at Battle Cr.and Delta locations from 1994-2001 (USFWS, unpubl. data, Chippstable 2005)"NANANA
20110.53625Estimated smolt survival termNatural2012-01-26"8/ Average of ocean recoveries of paired Late-Fall releases from Coleman NFH released at Battle Cr.and Delta locations from 1994-2001 (USFWS, unpubl. data, Chipps Table 2005)"NANANA
20120.53625Estimated smolt survival termNatural2013-01-31"8/ Average of ocean recoveries of paired Late-Fall releases from Coleman NFH released at Battle Creek and Delta locations from 1994-2001 (USFWS, unpubl. data, Chipps Table 2005)"NANANA
20130.27Estimated smolt survival termNatural2014-02-21"10/ Survival of acoustically tagged winter run in 2014 between Salt Creek and Tower Bridge - A. Ammann, personal communication"NANANA
20140.42Estimated smolt survival termNatural2015-01-16"10/ Survival of acoustically tagged winter run in 2014 between Salt Creek and Tower Bridge - A. Ammann, personal communication"NANANA
20150.42Estimated smolt survival termNatural2016-01-28"10/ Average survival of acoustically tagged winter run in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (2 values in 2015) between RBDD and 180 Tower Bridge in Sacramento - A. Ammann, NMFS, personal communication. Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for acoustic tag studies."NANANA
20160.459Estimated smolt survival termNatural2017-02-03"9/ Average weighted survival of acoustically tagged winter-run in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (2 values in 2015) between RBDD and 180 Tower Bridge in Sacramento - A. Ammann, NMFS, personal communication. Survival is estimated from the Sall Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for acoustic tag studies."NANANA
20170.5129Estimated smolt survival termNatural2018-01-08"7/ Average weighted survival of acoustically tagged winter-run in 2013, 2014, 2015 (2 values in 2015) and 2016 (2 values in 2016) and one value in 2017 between RBDD and 180 Tower Bridge in Sacramento - A. Ammann, NMFS, personal communication. Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for acoustic tag studies (See Appendix A, for further description of how the weighted average acoustic tag survival was used for methods 2, 2a,3 and 3a). This is the derivation of the numbers of fish arriving to Salt Ck (RBDD) and Sacramento (Tower, Sac180/50) from the acoustic tagged LSNFH winter run pre-smolts. The number of fish arriving to Salt Ck and Sac 180/50 are derived by looking at receivers at this location and all locations downstream. It uses fish directly detected at that site plus any fish that were missed at that site but detected at a site downstream. This was done for all years 2013-2017. The 2017 year was the only year that had significant flows over Fremont Weir. Fish that went over the weir and into the Yolo Bypass would bypass the Sacramento 180/50 Bridge and other nearby receiver locations. If these fish were detected at locations downstream of Liberty Island they were considered to have survived to the Delta and thus added to the number of the fish counted at Sacramento 180/50 Bridge."NANANA
20180.5028Estimated smolt survival termNatural2019-02-01"8/ Average weighted survival of acoustically tagged winter-run in 2013,2014,2015 (2 values), 2016 (2 values), 2017, and 2018 between RBDD and 180 Tower Bridge in Sacramento. Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for acoustic tag studies (M. O'Farrell, NMFS, personal communication)"NANANA
20190.4762Estimated smolt survival termNatural2020-01-23"8/ Variance-weighted mean survival rate of acoustically tagged winter-run from 2013 to 2019 between RBDD and I-80/Tower Bridge in Sacramento. Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for acoustic tag studies. See Smolt Survival section for an explanation of the different values displayed here."Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA; and University of California Santa Cruz.NANA
20200.3304Estimated smolt survival termNatural2021-01-15"8/ Variance-weighted mean survival rate of acoustically tagged hatchery winter-run from 2013 to 2020 between RBDD and I-80/Tower Bridge in Sacramento. Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for natural-origin smolts."Method 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
20210.3537Estimated smolt survival termNatural2022-01-14"8/ Variance-weighted mean survival rate of acoustically tagged hatchery winter-run Chinook Salmon from 2013 to 2021 between RBDD and I-80/Tower Bridge in Sacramento (based on O’Farrell et al. 2018). Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for natural-origin smolts."Method 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
20220.3245Estimated smolt survival termNatural2023-01-13"8/ Variance-weighted mean survival rate of acoustically tagged hatchery winter-run Chinook Salmon from 2013 to 2022 between RBDD and I-80/Tower Bridge in Sacramento (based on O’Farrell et al. 2018). Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for natural-origin smolts."Method 2 (O’Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
20230.318Estimated smolt survival termNatural2024-01-12"8/ Variance-weighted mean survival rate of acoustically tagged hatchery winter-run Chinook Salmon from 2013 to 2023 between RBDD and at or below I-80/Tower Bridge in Sacramento (based on O’Farrell et al. 2018). Survival is estimated from the Salt Creek receiver site, located 3 miles downstream of RBDD, to estimate survival from RBDD for natural-origin smolts."Method 2 (O'Farrell et al 2018) with data from USFWS, UC Santa Cruz, and SWFSCNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Number of smolts at RBDD

Natural Origin: Number of smolts at RBDD from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Number of smolts at RBDD from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
1992NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1993NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1994NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1995NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1996NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1997NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1998NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1999NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2000NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2001NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2002NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2003NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2004NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2005NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2006NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2007NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2008NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2009NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2010NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2011302,193Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2012-01-26NAUSFWSNANA
2012993,583Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2013-01-31NAUSFWSNANA
2013NANumber of smolts at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2014296,479Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2015-01-16NAUSFWSNANA
2015242,180Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2016-01-28NAUSFWSNANA
2016362,068Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2017-02-03NAUSFWSNANA
2017392,688Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2018-01-08NAUSFWSNANA
2018861,527Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2019-02-01NAUSFWSNANA
20192,214,872Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2020-01-23NAUSFWSNANA
2020999,183Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2021-01-15NAUSFWSNANA
2021353,515Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2022-01-14NAUSFWSNANA
2022153,849Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2023-01-13NAUSFWSNANA
2023738,668Number of smolts at RBDDNatural2024-01-12NAUSFWSNANA

Natural Origin: Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDD

Natural Origin: Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDD from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDD from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote* References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
1992NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1993NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1994NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1995NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1996NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1997NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1998NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
1999NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2000NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2001NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2002NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2003NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2004NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2005NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2006NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2007NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2008NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2009NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2010NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2011512,192Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2012-01-26NANANANA
20121,684,039Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2013-01-31NANANANA
2013NAFry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNaturalNANANANANA
2014502,506Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2015-01-16"8/ Number of fry equivalents at RBDD-JPI-Bill Poytress, personal communication"USFWSNANA
2015410,475Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2016-01-28"8/ Number of fry equivalents at RBDD - JPI - Bill Poytress, (USFWS), personal communication"USFWSNANA
2016613,675Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2017-02-03"7/ Number of fry equivalents estimated on December 16, 2016 at RBDD-JPI-Bill Poytress, (USFWS), personal communication"USFWSNANA
2017665,572Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2018-01-08"5/ Preliminary number of fry-equivalents estimated on December 16, 2017 plus 4.1% interpolation at RBDD - JPI - Bill Poytress,USFWS, personal communication"USFWSNANA
20181,460,216Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2019-02-01"6/ Preliminary number of fry-equivalents estimated on January 14, 2019 plus 2.1% interpolation at RBDD using traditional (59%) fry to smolt survival estimates (Bill Poytress,USFWS, personal communication)"USFWSNANA
20194,762,142Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2020-01-23"6/ Preliminary number of fry equivalents estimated on December 31, 2019 plus 3.1% interpolation to account for remainder of estimated passage for the 2019 brood year at RBDD; using 0.4651 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate (Bill Poytress, USFWS, pers. comm.)."Voss and Poytress (2022a), USFWSNANA
20202,232,811Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2021-01-15"6/ Preliminary number of fry equivalents estimated on January 14, 2021 plus 2.11% interpolation to account for remainder of estimated passage for the 2020 brood year at RBDD; using 0.4475 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate (Bill Poytress, USFWS, pers. comm.). This estimate includes and does not differentiate between the number of fry equivalents outmigrating from Battle Creek and the Sacramento River."Voss and Poytress (2022b), USFWSNANA
2021798,183Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2022-01-14"6/ Preliminary number of fry equivalents estimated on December 31, 2021 plus 3.1% interpolation to account for remainder of estimated passage for the 2021 brood year at RBDD; using 0.4429 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate (Bill Poytress, USFWS, pers. comm.). This estimate includes and does not differentiate between the number of fry equivalents outmigrating from Battle Creek and the Sacramento River."Voss and Poytress (2023), USFWSNANA
2022311,058Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2023-01-13"6/ Preliminary number of fry equivalents estimated on December 31, 2022 plus 2.70% interpolation to account for remainder of estimated passage for the 2022 brood year at RBDD; using 0.4946 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate (Bill Poytress, USFWS, pers. comm.). This estimate includes and does not differentiate between the number of fry equivalents outmigrating from Battle Creek and the Sacramento River."USFWSNANA
20231,458,089Fry equivalents of juvenile production at RBDDNatural2024-01-12"6/ Preliminary number of fry equivalents estimated on December 31, 2023 plus 3.08% interpolation to account for remainder of estimated passage for the 2023 brood year at RBDD; using 0.5066 fry-to-smolt survival rate estimate (Bill Poytress, USFWS, pers. comm.). This estimate includes and does not differentiate the number of fry equivalents outmigrating from the McCloud River, Battle Creek, and the Sacramento River."USFWSNANA
*From Table 1 of "Final Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimate Recommendation for Brood Year" letters from CDFW / Winter-run PWT to NMFS (Enclosures in JPE letters)

Natural Origin: Natural Incidental Take Limit

Natural Origin: Natural Incidental Take Limit from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Natural Origin: Natural Incidental Take Limit from annual NMFS Winter-Run Juvenile Production Estimates (JPE)
Brood Year Value Component Origin JPE letter dateFootnote References & Contributors Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI
1992NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
1993NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
1994NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
1995NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
1996NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
1997NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
1998NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
1999NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2000NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2001NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2002NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2003NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2004NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2005NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2006NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2007NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2008NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2009NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2010NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2011NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2012NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
2013NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
20142,490Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2015-01-16NANANANA
20151,017Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2016-01-28NANANANA
20161,662Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2017-02-03NANANANA
20172,014Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2018-01-08NANANANA
20184,332Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2019-02-01NANANANA
20198,549Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2020-01-23NANANANA
20204,292Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2021-01-15NANANANA
20211,625Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2022-01-14NANANANA
2022NANatural Incidental Take LimitNaturalNANANANANA
20231,776Natural Incidental Take LimitNatural2024-01-12NANANANA

References:

O'Farrell, M. R., Satterthwaite, W. H., Hendrix, A. N., & Mohr, M. S. (2018). Alternative Juvenile Production Estimate (JPE) forecast approaches for Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, 16(4). DOI:10.15447/sfews.2018v16iss4art4.

Voss, S. D., and W. R. Poytress. 2020. Brood Year 2018 Juvenile Salmonid Production and Passage Indices at the Red Bluff Diversion Dam (2018 Annual RBDD Juvenile Fish Monitoring Report). Report by the Red Bluff Fish and Wildlife Office, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Red Bluff, California, prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Sacramento, California. DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.28854.93764.

Voss, S. D., and W. R. Poytress. 2022a. 2019 Red Bluff Diversion Dam Rotary Trap Juvenile Anadromous Fish Abundance Estimates. Report by the Red Bluff Fish and Wildlife Office, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Red Bluff, California, prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Sacramento, California.

Voss, S. D., and W. R. Poytress. 2022b. 2020 Red Bluff Diversion Dam Rotary Trap Juvenile Anadromous Fish Abundance Estimates. Report by the Red Bluff Fish and Wildlife Office, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Red Bluff, California, prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Sacramento, California.

Voss, S. D., and W. R. Poytress. 2023. 2021 Red Bluff Diversion Dam Rotary Trap Juvenile Anadromous Fish Abundance Estimates. Report by the Red Bluff Fish and Wildlife Office, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Red Bluff, California, prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Sacramento, California. DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.12701.49129.

Query Notes